The security situation at the end of the year 2020
Guest contribution of the Working Group on Foreign and Security Policy in the Pirate Party Germany
USA/Middle East – B-52 Bombers in the Gulf
01/01/2021 – The U.S. is deploying B-52 bombers to the Gulf region to send a signal of strength toward Iran. On the anniversary of General Qasem Soleimani’s assassination by the U.S. in a drone strike, threats of retaliation emerged from various quarters. In response, the U.S. makes clear that it is prepared for any confrontation and intends to respond decisively militarily.
Iran – Testing of country-developed Corona vaccine
12/31/2020 – Iran begins testing a domestically developed Corona vaccine. The handling of this led to a dispute between the political directions in Iran. Critics see the trial as a national solo effort and urge President Rohani to import vaccines from other manufacturers to begin vaccinations as soon as possible. Among the population, however, the Iranian president seems to be supported in his course by a broad majority.
USA – Evidence of Chinese bounty on U.S. soldiers
12/31/2020 – Apparently China has been trying to recruit non-state actors in Afghanistan to attack American soldiers. According to media reports, President Trump was informed of this by the intelligence services. In the past, there have been reports of such an offer by Russian intelligence services. However, the allegations could not be confirmed in any of the cases so far.
Africa – Free Trade Area
12/31/2020 – At the turn of the year, the world’s largest free trade agreement, AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area), will come into force. With the exception of Eritrea, all countries on the African continent are participating. The countries hope that the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers, as well as standardization in the administrative and fiscal areas, will lead to a significant increase in the current trade volume of around 17% (compared with 69% in Europe). This can be seen as an important step for cooperation, industrialization and ultimately overall prosperity on the African continent.
Poland – Unification of the Media Landscape
12/29/2020 – The Polish state-owned company PKN Orlen buys Polska Press, which was previously owned by the Passau publishing group. This purchase brings with it a further nationalization of Polish media, which is also reflected in the international press freedom ranking of “Reporters Without Borders”: in 2015 Poland ranked 18th, in 2020 it is only to be found in 62nd place. This is in stark contrast to the values that are important to the European Union.
Syria – Turkish muscle flexing in northern Syria
12/23/2020 – In recent days, the Turkish army has launched a small offensive on the northern Syrian town of Ayn Isa. Three points are worth noting here: first, little to no Islamic militias have been deployed on the front lines. Furthermore, the Russian military has been largely passive. In the past, troop presence and patrols have prevented attacks. And last but not least, the defenders are very much dug in. From a military perspective, an advance to the west or east of the city would have been much more successful. This approach therefore suggests a political motivation.
Central African Republic – Russian and Rwandan troops
12/21/2020 – Russia and Rwanda deployed several 100 troops and heavy equipment to the Central African Republic. Opposition militias have joined forces in what the incumbent government sees as a coup attempt. The armed rebels wanted to obstruct the election process. Election results are expected in January.
China – Database with millions of CP members surfaced
12/15/2020 – A database containing several million members of the Chinese Communist Party had already been leaked in 2016. This data set was passed on to journalists in the summer of 2019, who have now published the results of their research and examination. According to this, many members are said to be in key positions in Western institutions and companies. Not only is this alarming after Beijing’s open confrontation course with the West, but it also shows once again the dangers of uncontrolled data collection.
UN – Budget for 2021 set
22.12.2020 – After the long discussions about the financing of the UN, which were very intense with the threatened cuts of the Trump administration, a budget of 3.2 billion US dollars could now be adopted for 2021. This represents a slight increase compared to 2020, when the budget was still $3.1 billion. However, it is questionable whether this is sufficient to meet the challenges posed by the corona pandemic. Especially the poorer countries, which cannot afford far-reaching economic stimulus programs and have so far relied on measures from the catalog of the Washington Consensus and strict austerity policies, will urgently need additional aid from external financing rounds. Germany has already made a small step forward by providing 150 million Euros for the UN emergency aid pot at the beginning of December.
Germany – Northstream 2 section completed
12/28/2020 – Completion of the controversial Northstream pipeline continues to progress, with approximately 2.6 km completed. This completes the laying in the German economic zone. About 100 km are still missing for the final completion of the controversial pipeline.
From the point of view of the working groups of foreign, security, energy and environmental policy of the Pirates, this pipeline is unnecessary for supply security and represents a great potential for conflict with European partners, with whom a joint solution should be found here instead.
Ethiopia – Tigray Conflict
11/28/2020 – Since the election of Ethiopian President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abiy Ahmed, the power of the Tigray Liberation Front has been increasingly curtailed. The Tigray Liberation Front (TLF) held a preeminent position in Ethiopia’s political landscape since 1991. The new president curtailed this power by cracking down on TLF businesses and other power players. The military conflict was triggered by the election in the Tigray region, which was held in Tigray by the TLF despite the postponement of all elections in Ethiopia. This was used as an opportunity to take action against the TLF. The military advance was also supported by Eritrea. This was made possible by Ethiopia’s peace agreement with the dictator of Eritrea, who is a declared enemy of the Tigray Liberation Front. Victory was declared with the capture of the capital of the Tigray region, Mek’ele, on Nov. 28, 2020. However, the conflict continues to simmer and has driven many refugees across the border into Sudan.
Additional sources on the Tigray conflict:
Background (Heise/TP)
Military offensive (Tagesschau)
Interim report (FAZ)
Yemen – Turkey to play a more active role
11/24/2020 – Turkey is increasing its influence in Yemen and wants to take a more active role. This is currently being done through more active support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the region, which is also on Washington’s terror list.
China – access to software of American F-35 fighter jets
11/13/2020 – China had access to the control software of F-35 fighter jets, requiring large portions of the software to be rewritten to minimize the surface area for digital attacks on the system. The security vulnerability arose from a subcontracting order being passed on to subcontractors. Similar incidents also occurred in Europe at Airbus. So far, there has been no political reaction in either case.
Northern Cyprus – Protests against Erdoğan
11/15/2020 – Erdoğan was received by protesters in Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus. He wanted to provocatively join the celebrations of 37 years of self-declared independence of Northern Cyprus due to Turkish occupation. However, this is seen by parts of the Turkish Cypriots as an interference in the internal affairs and autonomy of the area.
Russia – New naval base in Sudan
12.11.2020 – Russia is planning a naval base on the Red Sea in Sudan. This will improve Russia’s strategic position on one of the world’s most important shipping routes and its influence in Africa. A comparable joint European Africa strategy does not exist yet and is seen as a weakness of the EU.
